Bitcoin's Long-Term Thesis

Bitcoin drifts sideways around $68,000. We're in a bear market, and sentiment is gloomy. Bitcoin has failed, many say. But what's the actual long-term outlook?

AI Agents Need Money Too

Stripe enables AI agents to pay autonomously with USDC on Base. The x402 protocol makes payment part of digital communication. Is this the first step toward a true machine economy—and a new crypto narrative?

A Plan for the Bear Market

After the February 5th capitulation to $60,000, the market has settled. No more doubt: this is a bear market. When do we get back in? What's the right plan now?

No Culprit, But Still a Crash

After early February's capitulation, investors are searching for what caused the bitcoin crash. The answer is more complex than expected. No single villain—but a clear shift in the market.

Capitulation

Bitcoin plunged from $73K to $60K on February 5—one of the biggest crashes in its history. What does this mean for our scenarios? We reveal our price and time targets for this bear market.

A Month Without a Compass

January 2026 felt like a year crammed into one month. From geopolitics to the Epstein files: why so many simultaneous events lead to norm erosion, anomie, and unrest.

If it walks like a bear...

Bitcoin slips to $82,000, flirting with November's lows. The evidence increasingly points to a bear market. Time to reassess our scenario probabilities.

Narrative Follows Price

Last week's gains have been wiped out. Bitcoin is back below $90,000. Meanwhile, gold keeps breaking records. When narratives shift with price, what's really driving markets?

Paper Gains, Real Pain

Everyone says the Dutch invest too little, yet The Hague is making investing harder and riskier with an unrealized gains tax. Why exactly?