A Month Without a Compass

January 2026 felt like a year crammed into one month. From geopolitics to the Epstein files: why so many simultaneous events lead to norm erosion, anomie, and unrest.

If it walks like a bear...

Bitcoin slips to $82,000, flirting with November's lows. The evidence increasingly points to a bear market. Time to reassess our scenario probabilities.

Narrative Follows Price

Last week's gains have been wiped out. Bitcoin is back below $90,000. Meanwhile, gold keeps breaking records. When narratives shift with price, what's really driving markets?

Paper Gains, Real Pain

Everyone says the Dutch invest too little, yet The Hague is making investing harder and riskier with an unrealized gains tax. Why exactly?

A Stress Test from Outer Space

Former Bank of England analyst warns of financial turmoil from potential UAP disclosure. What does this say about trust, markets—and why does bitcoin keep appearing in these scenarios?

Bitcoin breaks through $94,000

After eight weeks trapped below $94,000, bitcoin finally broke out this week. The price came within a hair's breadth of $98,000 on Wednesday. But how high can this rally go?

America Is Cracking

The conflict between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell escalates after criminal prosecution threats. What does this moment reveal about central bank independence, institutions, and trust in America?

A Bear Market by Time

Price still hovering around $90,000. For our preferred scenario—a "bear market by time"—a rally above $100k would be welcome.

Seventeen years of bitcoin—what now?

Seventeen years after the genesis block, bitcoin is no longer a revolution. What has really changed since the 2008 banking crisis, and what role does bitcoin play in the financial system today?