A Bear Market by Time
Price still hovering around $90,000. For our preferred scenario—a "bear market by time"—a rally above $100k would be welcome.
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Seventeen years of bitcoin—what now?
Seventeen years after the genesis block, bitcoin is no longer a revolution. What has really changed since the 2008 banking crisis, and what role does bitcoin play in the financial system today?
All Your Models Are Destroyed
Bitcoin drifted sideways around $88k last week. For the first time ever, we closed the third year of the market cycle in the red. Quite a few models have been shattered!
Fiat Time
Why January 1st is mostly an agreement. On fiat time, the British tax year, and why old systems are stubborn. A historical perspective on time, money, and the new framework bitcoin has established.
Spectacularly Good and Utterly Disappointing
Bitcoin hovers near its 2025 opening price—a fitting end to a split year. Record ETF inflows meet negative returns. The great rotation continues as $100k shifts from destination to starting point.
Winter as a Selection Process
Why do correcting and quiet markets feel so uncomfortable? Discover why winter phases aren't punishment—they're a test of preparation and conviction.
Crossing the Chasm
Year-end reflection: 2025 marked a pivotal moment. Bitcoin and crypto bridged the gap from pioneers to the mainstream—but through two radically different paths.
The Christmas no one saw coming
A true story about the 1914 Christmas truce, when soldiers spontaneously stopped fighting. What this moment reveals about trust, human cooperation, and why that lesson is especially relevant now.
Have we been in a bear market for ten months already?
Crypto markets are quiet as bitcoin hovers between $88K-$94K. After a brutal drop from $126K to $80.5K that triggered $9.9B in realized losses, investors are catching their breath. But is this consolidation—or something more bearish?
Deceptive Calm
Bitcoin sits in a deceptive calm: headwinds from profit-takers, macro uncertainty and cycle fears clash with tailwinds from policy, institutions and easing prospects. What the winter at the Somme tells us about what comes next.