The Handbrake Can Come Off

This is a special edition of Alpha Markets. Later today we'll also be sending out the regular edition of Alpha News.

We promised you we'd send an email as soon as bitcoin posted a weekly close above the 50-week moving average. That's the mirror image of the handbrake, and a strong indication that we're at the start of a new bull market.

That's exactly what happened overnight.

For the first time since 10 November 2025, bitcoin posted a weekly close above the 50-week moving average. That average sat at $78,800, and the weekly close came in a bit above it at $81,200.

In November we pulled the handbrake; now the handbrake is coming off.

At the same time, we have to acknowledge that we can't put the pedal to the metal just yet. This is only the first box ticked, and we haven't yet crossed the dividing line between a bear and a bull market.

So what now? Let's pull up some charts.

Breaking through the 50-week moving average is a fragile signal, because the price is only sitting just above it and hasn't yet settled the score with the 6 May top at $83,000.

As a result, this weekly close only ticks one box:

✅ A weekly close above the 50-week moving average at $78,800
⏹️ A higher high (HH) above the $83,000 from 6 May
⏹️ A higher low (HL) above the $57,700 from 1 July
⏹️ A shift in that average's direction from falling to rising

But one box ticked is better than none.

On the chart above we've drawn two horizontal lines:

• The $83,000 marks the boundary between a higher high (HH) above it or a lower high (LH) below it.
• The $57,700 marks the boundary between a higher low (HL) above it or a lower low (LL) below it.

These two levels will determine the next two boxes.

On top of that, for a few weeks now we've been seeing that the market has a distinctly different character than it did in, say, the first quarter. We're spotting all kinds of early signals that we're in the transition from a bear to a bull market.

Adding it all up, we're taking this signal seriously. We're adjusting the probabilities of the scenarios we laid out on 28 August as follows:

It was:

1. The new bull market has begun: 50%
2. The bear market isn't over yet: 40%
3. The bear market has a lot further to fall: 10%

It's now:

1. The new bull market has begun: 70%
2. The bear market isn't over yet: 20%
3. The bear market has a lot further to fall: 10%

Schematically, you'd see those three scenarios on the chart like this:

Note that we've drawn two variants of the 'new bull market'. Both are possible. Either a higher high above $83,000 right away, or a higher low above $57,700 first. In both cases, that's the next box ticked.

Naturally, our preference is the route toward a higher high above the $83,000 from 6 May, plus a monthly close above the 12-month moving average. Those two would give us confidence that we're not just looking at a temporary blip, and that a new uptrend has genuinely begun.

Let's take one more look at the base scenario we've been working with since November 2026: the mild bear market. We've followed the sketched path fairly closely. A little less deep, and a little faster.

A weekly close just above the average has the downside that the signal isn't super strong, but at the same time the upside that you can get in just above this level.

An alternative is to wait for the next weekly cycle low (ICL), which will hopefully also turn out to be the first higher low (HL). If sentiment stays optimistic, it stands to reason that there'll be plenty of demand between 60k and 70k. That would be an interesting zone to move to a full allocation.

If you have any questions, you're welcome in the market channel on Discord.

Thank you for reading!

To stay informed about the latest market developments and insights, follow our team members on X:

• Bart Mol (@Bart_Mol)
• Peter Slagter (@pesla)
• Bert Slagter (@bslagter)
• Mike Lelieveld (@mlelieveld)

We appreciate your continued support and look forward to bringing you more comprehensive analysis in our next edition.

Until then!