Bitcoin's Long-Term Thesis
Bitcoin drifts sideways around $68,000. We're in a bear market, and sentiment is gloomy. Bitcoin has failed, many say. But what's the actual long-term outlook?
Topic
Alpha Markets
Technische analyse, on-chain analyse, macro-economie. Klinkt ingewikkeld? Met Markets houden we Alpha’s op de hoogte over de stand van zaken. Dit is het archief met alle marktupdates die ze ontvangen hebben.
A Plan for the Bear Market
After the February 5th capitulation to $60,000, the market has settled. No more doubt: this is a bear market. When do we get back in? What's the right plan now?
Capitulation
Bitcoin plunged from $73K to $60K on February 5—one of the biggest crashes in its history. What does this mean for our scenarios? We reveal our price and time targets for this bear market.
If it walks like a bear...
Bitcoin slips to $82,000, flirting with November's lows. The evidence increasingly points to a bear market. Time to reassess our scenario probabilities.
Narrative Follows Price
Last week's gains have been wiped out. Bitcoin is back below $90,000. Meanwhile, gold keeps breaking records. When narratives shift with price, what's really driving markets?
Bitcoin breaks through $94,000
After eight weeks trapped below $94,000, bitcoin finally broke out this week. The price came within a hair's breadth of $98,000 on Wednesday. But how high can this rally go?
A Bear Market by Time
Price still hovering around $90,000. For our preferred scenario—a "bear market by time"—a rally above $100k would be welcome.
All Your Models Are Destroyed
Bitcoin drifted sideways around $88k last week. For the first time ever, we closed the third year of the market cycle in the red. Quite a few models have been shattered!
Spectacularly Good and Utterly Disappointing
Bitcoin hovers near its 2025 opening price—a fitting end to a split year. Record ETF inflows meet negative returns. The great rotation continues as $100k shifts from destination to starting point.
Crossing the Chasm
Year-end reflection: 2025 marked a pivotal moment. Bitcoin and crypto bridged the gap from pioneers to the mainstream—but through two radically different paths.