AI Agents Need Money Too

Were you hanging around on X in February? Then you've undoubtedly read stories about AI. In recent weeks, the sentiment has been bordering on breathless again. The latest language models are breaking records. Text, images, video, code; the results are stunning. With AI agents, you can automate your life. Better yet, they're taking over our jobs. Before long, AGI will be knocking at the door. Then agents will be smarter, faster, more efficient, and cheaper than us.

Setting aside the hype, there's a serious question underneath: if software starts acting autonomously, how does that software settle its bills?

AI agents don't operate in a vacuum. They purchase data, rent computing power, use external services, and call upon other systems. These aren't monthly subscriptions that an intermediary manually arranges. These are thousands of small transactions per day. Sometimes worth just a few cents.

Stripe, one of the world's largest payment processors, announced this week that it wants to tap into this. The company launched a pilot with so-called 'machine payments': a way for software to pay directly for access to a digital service.

The technology behind it is less complicated than it sounds. When an AI agent requests information from a service, that service can now first send back a payment request. Only after payment does the agent get access. Payment in this case happens with the dollar stablecoin USDC, via Base, Coinbase's blockchain network.

What's remarkable isn't so much that crypto is being used for payment. What's remarkable is that payments are becoming part of digital communication itself.

Stripe states that the current financial system was designed for humans. For cards, direct debits, and monthly statements. AI agents have different needs. They need to be able to transfer small amounts 24 hours a day, globally and almost instantly. Without human intervention.

This doesn't mean traditional payment methods will disappear. Within a single platform, you can also work with pre-deposited balances or internal credits. But as soon as different systems do business with each other, an open and programmable payment rail becomes attractive. The step to public blockchain networks is then quickly taken.

Is this the beginning of a new economic order? It's too early to say. The expectation that 'trillions of agents' will someday be active is, for now, mostly wishful thinking. But the infrastructure is being prepared.

For the crypto market, this is relevant. Previous cycles revolved around speculation, ETFs, and allocations from large investors. The next cycle will need to revolve around usage. AI and crypto form a logical combination: autonomous software that can independently exchange value.

The tone has been set!

More Alpha

Are you a Plus member? Then we continue with the following topics:

1. Why JPMorgan is bullish 📈
2. Even Danske Bank now offers bitcoin
3. 'Short the Netherlands': adopted wealth appreciation tax bill dissected on X

1️⃣ Why JPMorgan is bullish 📈

Contribution by Peter

Is JPMorgan seeing green candles ahead? Then that's automatically news. America's largest bank isn't known for making wild statements. Yet the analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou writes that they are "positive" about the crypto market in 2026. That sounds cautious, but reading between the lines, the message is clear: the foundation for a new phase is being laid.

JPMorgan bullish on crypto for rest of year as institutional flows set to drive recovery

After bitcoin fell below its estimated production cost, the bank said stronger fundamentals and rising institutional inflows could lift crypto in 2026.

CoinDeskWill Canny

The bank analysts first address bitcoin's production costs. According to their model, this currently sits around $77,000. It should come as no surprise that the price has dropped well below that. Historically, this is a sensitive area. When miners structurally operate below their cost price, the inefficient players come under pressure. Machines get switched off. Reserves are tapped. Debts are rolled over, if possible.

That sounds like stress. And it is. But in markets, stress often has a cleansing effect. When the most expensive producers disappear, the average cost price drops. Selling pressure decreases and the system recalibrates. JPMorgan sees this mechanism as healthy self-correction.

The second point: capital flows. The bank expects that the recovery of the bitcoin market won't be driven by consumers, but by institutional players. Think pension funds, asset managers, and large parties that think in percentages, not in memes. According to the analysts, this type of capital behaved relatively well during this correction.

Institutional capital is slower, more thorough, and more dependent on rules. That's why JPMorgan sees policy as a catalyst. The development of American legislation, such as the Clarity Act, could according to the bank remove the final barriers. For an individual, regulation is often noise. For a pension fund managing hundreds of billions, it's a prerequisite.

Finally, the analysts make an interesting comparison with gold. In recent months, gold performed considerably better than bitcoin. This was accompanied by a notable increase in gold's volatility. It might feel somewhat paradoxical, but it's precisely this combination that makes bitcoin, relatively speaking, more attractive in a long-term portfolio.

JPMorgan isn't predicting an imminent breakthrough to new records. They describe a market being cleaned up, tested, and rebalanced. But beneath that process, they see something shifting: more stable capital flows, lower production costs, and increasing regulatory clarity.

Bullish? In banking terms, yes!

2️⃣ Even Danske Bank now offers bitcoin

Contribution by Peter

Anyone who mentioned the word bitcoin at Danske Bank in 2018 was immediately shown the door. The bank wanted nothing to do with it and explicitly advised customers against investing in it. In 2021, that position was reaffirmed once again. Crypto had no place within the safe walls of Denmark's largest bank.

Fast-forward to 2026. Finally, Danske customers can invest in bitcoin and ether, through the bank's existing trading platform.

Danske Bank Offers Bitcoin, Ethereum ETPs to Investors, Ending Eight-Year Crypto 'Ban' - Decrypt

Denmark's largest bank is ending an eight-year 'ban' on crypto services in response to growing customer demand and improved regulation.

DecryptSimon Chandler

Danske doesn't offer spot trading. No custody or advice either. It's about regulated exchange-traded products, think ETFs, that can be purchased by customers who have passed a suitability test. Everything within clear boundaries, everything under supervision.

This news isn't particularly spectacular. But it's also less innocent than it seems. The bank has millions of customers and a balance sheet that reflects a substantial portion of the Danish economy. Why did Danske suddenly decide to make a move on this front in 2026?

This change isn't being driven by massive adoption in Denmark. Only a small percentage of the population owns bitcoin, and internationally the country isn't leading the pack. In other words, there's no retail frenzy or strongly increased demand forcing the bank into action.

The answer is more boring. With the introduction of MiCA, the European Union has placed crypto in a legal framework. For banks, that means clarity: definitions, licensing requirements, supervision. What was a compliance risk for years is now a manageable, legitimate product.

Danske emphasizes in its communications that crypto remains an "opportunistic investment" and isn't a natural part of a long-term portfolio. That reluctance is genuine. At the same time, the bank makes the product available for those who accept the risk.

This is what institutionalization also looks like. No drumroll, no convinced about-face, no fanfare. Just a new, somewhat dusty counter in the banking app.

Danske is shifting from: "We don't do this." To: "If you want it, we'll facilitate it, with a stamp of approval from Brussels."

3️⃣ 'Short the Netherlands': adopted wealth appreciation tax bill dissected on X

Contribution by Erik

On X, news of the wealth appreciation tax bill adopted by the Dutch House of Representatives is being widely shared and commented on. The sentiment surrounding the Real Returns Box 3 Act is extremely negative. Of course, it's X, where nuance doesn't fare as well as polarization. But still, the outrage and even bewilderment of foreign onlookers seems genuine. It's also notable that the news is reaching beyond the circle of people who write about finance.

The tenor: analysts see this form of taxation as confiscation of property, as a killer of compounding, and a potential trigger for capital flight. The news that this is probably going to happen in the Netherlands is seen as a warning signal for other countries in Europe and the Western world.

What's striking is that it's also attracting commentators who normally rarely write about financial matters. Elon Musk, indeed, who gets involved in everything. But remarkable, for example, is that the respected Canadian evolutionary psychologist Gad Saad writes about it, with more than a million followers:

"It is truly extraordinary to see the new Dutch tax on unrealized capital gains. It is as though the responsible politicians exist in a parallel universe fully decoupled from an understanding of human nature, economics, and reality."

Seizure of property

Bitcoin Alpha has been covering this law for more than a year now. It's set to take effect from 2028 but still needs to pass through the Senate. Here's an explainer video from Bert, which also serves as an opinion piece. For the international audience, there's for example this explanation from Bart, which was widely shared on X.

Although opinions on X are often spicy, they don't fundamentally differ from what we've explained in more nuanced terms. Take this statement from a certain Alex Recouso: "The asset seizures I warned you about have started in Europe." Sounds ominous, but a simple calculation shows that taxation on unrealized gains leads to erosion of your stock or crypto holdings.

A break with Dutch trading tradition

Outsiders writing about the news sometimes place it in the context of the Netherlands as the cradle of modern capitalism.

Kai Baumgarter writes:

"The Dutch merchant tradition was built on one principle: tax realized trade, not hypothetical valuation. A 36% tax on unrealized capital gains is not a technical tweak, it is a structural intervention into capital formation."

Andrew Edmonds:

"The Netherlands once built the first stock market, pioneered global trade, and defined modern capitalism. Today? Taxing unrealized gains at 36%. From inventing financial innovation to penalizing capital formation."

Unfounded criticism too

Some of the reactions show that outsiders haven't always properly studied the Dutch situation. They might point to the enforceability of the law, because every citizen must determine the value of their possessions each year. But that's already the case under the current law from 2001.

John Loeber:

"Virtually every Dutch citizen is going to be a criminal from here on. [...] Remember, without a sale, there's no financial trail. Lots of people are just going to chance it and not pay the tax. [...] Second, people own so many different assets, and it's hard to mark those assets to the market without a sale actually occurring.'

Takeaway: capital can migrate, middle class left holding the bag

Dutch investors are, if the law is pushed through this way, stuck between a rock and a hard place. Bitcoiner Lina Seiche puts it succinctly:

"Inflation is punishment for saving money. But an unrealized gains tax is punishment for investing."

The bitter takeaway from multiple observers: although capital can in principle flee—to holding companies or to other jurisdictions—these are primarily privileges for the wealthier. The middle class becomes, as so often, the cash cow: the upcoming tax law will hit Dutch investors with a few hundred thousand in investments the hardest.

Lark Davis:

"Capital is the most mobile asset in human history. You can't tax what you can't catch. The people with $10M+ aren't stuck—they have lawyers, second passports, and offshore structures. The middle-class investor with $200K in stocks? They're the ones who actually pay."

🍟 Snacks

To wrap up, some quick bites:

• ECB advocates for common European bond and accelerated integration. In a note for the informal EU summit, Frankfurt is pushing for a joint 'safe asset,' completion of the banking union, progress on the digital euro, and the removal of internal market barriers. The ECB is also calling for coordinated investments in defense and strategic technology. The implication: more fiscal integration and further transfer of national competencies.
• Michael Saylor brushes off money worries despite bitcoin price drop. Strategy owns 714,644 BTC, financed with convertible loans among other things, and has over $8 billion in debt outstanding. If the bitcoin price drops further, those debts start weighing heavily on the company. The Strategy CEO states that the company will simply refinance its debts and keep buying bitcoin if there's a prolonged decline. Reading between the lines, the bet is clear: Strategy's fate is tied to bitcoin's.
• IPO of bitcoin company Treasury fails on AFM regulatory requirements. The planned reverse listing won't proceed; according to the company, the regulator came with requirements it couldn't meet from the outset. Treasury is now seeking an alternative route, via another EU jurisdiction, to the Amsterdam stock exchange. Treasury had already purchased more than a thousand bitcoins with investor capital. According to the spokesperson, these will not be sold.
• Goldman Sachs reports $2.36 billion in crypto ETFs in 13F filing. In the US, large asset managers must disclose their positions. The exposure, roughly 0.33% of the total portfolio, is almost entirely in spot ETFs on bitcoin and ether. In the fourth quarter, relatively small positions in XRP and Solana were added. Compared to a quarter earlier, the bitcoin and ether positions have shrunk considerably. The bear market is a determining factor in that.
• Democrats attack SEC Chair Atkins over stalled crypto enforcement. In a House hearing, questions were raised about why cases against Justin Sun have been paused and the lawsuit against Binance has been dropped. President Trump's close ties to the sector were brought up as context. In 2025, the number of enforcement cases dropped by 60%. Atkins denies political pressure and speaks of a course change: more modern rules, cooperation with the CFTC, and exceptions for new crypto products.

Thank you for reading!

To stay informed about the latest market developments and insights, follow our team members on X:

• Bart Mol (@Bart_Mol)
• Peter Slagter (@pesla)
• Bert Slagter (@bslagter)
• Mike Lelieveld (@mlelieveld)

We appreciate your continued support and look forward to bringing you more comprehensive analysis in our next edition.

Until then!